From maize to coffee, El Nino likely to affect various crops across the world

SENSEX 73,598.67

 -8.08

NIFTY 22,749.75

 -3.45

CRUDEOIL 9,607.00

 -116.00

GOLD 142,900.00

 -173.00

SILVER 194,200.00

 -1,593.00

SENSEX 73,598.67

 -8.08

NIFTY 22,749.75

 -3.45

NIFTY 22,749.75

 -3.45

CRUDEOIL 9,607.00

 -116.00

CRUDEOIL 9,607.00

 -116.00

GOLD 142,900.00

 -173.00

'; } document.getElementById("lgdv").innerHTML = htmlElements; } function numberformat(i) { return Number(parseFloat(i).toFixed(2)).toLocaleString('en', { minimumFractionDigits: 2 }) } async function gatherResponse(response) { const { headers } = response; const contentType = headers.get('content-type') || ''; if (contentType.includes('application/json')) { return await response.json() } return response.text(); } function getWidth() { if (Math.max(document.body.scrollWidth,document.documentElement.scrollWidth,document.body.offsetWidth,document.documentElement.offsetWidth,document.documentElement.clientWidth) > 991) { document.getElementById("mob").style.display = "none"; document.getElementById("lgdv").style.display = "block"; } else { document.getElementById("mob").style.display = "block"; document.getElementById("lgdv").style.display = "none"; } } getWidth(); THIS AD SUPPORTS OUR JOURNALISM. SUBSCRIBE FOR MINIMAL ADS.THIS AD SUPPORTS OUR JOURNALISM. SUBSCRIBE FOR MINIMAL ADS.

The ongoing weather even is likely to raise risk of droughts, which increased by 11-12 pp in the past, say experts

By Subramani Ra Mancombu

Updated - October 27, 2026 at 06:29 PM. | Chennai

Mary Takawira, a villager, shows wilted maize crops in Mumijo, Buhera district east of the capital Harare, Zimbabwe, March 16, 2024. REUTERS/Philimon Bulawayo | Photo Credit: Philimon Bulawayo

With various global organisations predicting that the evolving El Nino could be one of the severest, the weather event could impact various crops across the world, from maize and rice to coffee to palm oil.

“This El Nino is likely to raise drought risk to cropland most in Southern Africa, Central America, northern South America and South-East Asia, threatening maize, rice, sugar, palm oil and coffee output,” said research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions. 

In past El Ninos, the share of cropland exposed to high-intensity drought rose by 11-12 percentage points on average across these regions, with Zambia, Zimbabwe, Central America’s Dry Corridor, the Philippines, Thailand, Guyana and Suriname among the hardest hit.

Food security risks

The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), an arm of the United Nations, said El Nino disrupts global weather patterns, increasing risks to food security, agriculture, and rural livelihoods.

“El Nino phase is likely to cause severe disruptions for millions of farmers and food producers in regions already affected by climate extremes and economic shocks, such as rising fuel and fertilizer prices linked to the Strait of Hormuz crisis,” it said in June.

“The 2026-27 El Nino — which developed mid-2026 and is projected to strengthen significantly into early 2027 — is causing major disruptions to global agricultural production and forecasts,” said the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The USDA sees El Nino affecting India, Kenya, Brazil, the US, Thailand, Indonesia and Australia among others.

South-East Asia woes

BMI said in Southern Africa, the risk centres around white maize, the region’s main staple. In the Dry Corridor, subsistence maize and beans as well as coffee are exposed, threatening rural incomes and food security in some of the region’s poorest communities. 

In South-East Asia, drought puts rice, Thai sugar, Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil and Vietnamese robusta at risk, and the region faces the largest population impact, with around 90 million more people exposed to drought on average in past events, it said. 

Rebuilt maize stocks should limit food inflation risks in Southern Africa this season. South-East Asia’s domestic buffers are thinner, placing supplies of rice, palm oil and coffee at higher risk. However, well-stocked global rice markets limit the risk of a repeat of the 2023-24 price spike. 

“Rice stocks have fallen below 2023 levels in Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines, leaving Manila, which imports around a third of its rice, most exposed to higher prices,” said BMI. 

Indian rice stocks to the rescue?

Indonesia’s palm oil and Vietnam’s robusta coffee stocks are also thin, at 9 per cent and 2 per cent of use. “The global backdrop is more reassuring.

India, now accounting for 39 per cent of world rice exports, holds record stocks equal to 47 per cent of consumption, against 30 per cent before 2023-24. That makes a repeat of the pre-emptive export curbs that drove the 2023-24 rice price spike less likely, while Thailand’s ample sugar stocks should sustain exports, it said.

The USDA said India is experiencing a regional monsoon patchwork with significant shortfalls in eastern, north-eastern, southern, and north-western parts, impacting wheat, rice, and sugarcane crops.

Climate extremes impact

Thailand will likely experience lower sugarcane yields and reduced sugar extraction due to El Nino-linked rainfall deficits. At the same time, Indonesia and Malaysia face heightened drought and dry conditions in major palm oil-producing regions, such as Sumatra and Kalimantan in Indonesia, it said. 

“What is particularly concerning to us is that all of this [El Nino] is occurring in the context of the already very high food insecurity in many parts of the world that are going to be affected by El Nino. And this is because of previous climate extremes,” said Dunja Dujanovic, FAO senior emergency and rehabilitation officer. 

Many parts of the world are already experiencing drought conditions, she said.

BMI said drought-driven food inflation is the main economic risk this season, squeezing household incomes and complicating monetary policy in exposed markets. 

Rise in heat exposure

“Going into this El Nino, low reservoir levels make Mozambique and El Salvador the weak spots, while healthy storage in Zambia, Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Angola and Ghana should cushion the drought impact,” it said.

The research agency said South Africa shows how quickly El Nino can play out: during the 2015-16 maize drought, food inflation tripled from 4 per cent to above 12 per cent as the share of cropland in extreme drought surged. 

“The impact is greatest in lower-income markets, where food makes up a large share of household spending, and central banks in exposed markets have tended to keep policy tighter in the months after a severe drought,” it said.

BMI said South-East Asia and Southern Africa face the sharpest rise in heat exposure. “We expect this El Nino to raise heatwave risk most in South-East Asia and Southern Africa, as well as parts of East and West Africa and northern South America,” it said.

FAO called for urgent “anticipatory action” to protect harvests and livelihoods to reduce the need for costly humanitarian response later.

Published on October 27, 2026

THIS AD SUPPORTS OUR JOURNALISM. SUBSCRIBE FOR MINIMAL ADS. THIS AD SUPPORTS OUR JOURNALISM. SUBSCRIBE FOR MINIMAL ADS. THIS AD SUPPORTS OUR JOURNALISM. SUBSCRIBE FOR MINIMAL ADS. THIS AD SUPPORTS OUR JOURNALISM. SUBSCRIBE FOR MINIMAL ADS.Sign into Unlock benefits!

• Access 10 free stories per month
• Get notified by email for early preview to new features, discounts & offers